The World Bank has projected Vietnam’s GDP growth to moderate to 6.6% in 2025 and 6.1% in 2026 as global trade slows, impacting export performance. The forecast was published in the “Taking Stock – Vietnam Economic Update, September 2025” report in Hà Nội.

Vietnam’s GDP expanded by 7.5% in the first half of 2025, driven by an increase in exports as businesses rushed to fill orders despite trade policy uncertainties. Investment at constant prices climbed 8%, owing to strong foreign inflows and faster public investment disbursement, while final consumption increased 8% due to a tourism rebound.

Exports increased 14.2% year-on-year in the first half, with a 28.3% increase in shipments to the United States, while imports increased 16% to meet production demands. The World Bank expects this strong growth to slow in the coming months.

With the US and China, Vietnam’s two main trading partners, expected to decelerate in late 2025, demand for Vietnamese goods may fall further. Experts emphasise the importance of flexible policymaking and ongoing investment in domestic businesses and services to mitigate external shocks and maintain growth momentum.